Google ook in Vraag & Aanbod? Nieuwe feiten...

Hyped schreef al op 26 Mei over het gerucht/idee dat Google ook wel eens binnenkort met een vraag en aanbod site (classifieds-site) zou kunnen komen aangezien ze een aantal interessante domeinnamen hebben geregistreerd. De nieuwe geruchten rond de voorspelde Google "Wallet" of "Payments" hebben ook deze voorspelling naar boven gehaald. Marketwatch van eTrade meldt het volgende (in het Engels):

Google`s real near-term upside is in the listings biz
June 21, 2005 00:01:00 (ET)
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - A Google "Wallet" sounds sexier than a Google classifieds or listings business.
So, it's no wonder that there's been so much chatter in the press about the possibility that Google will launch a payment system that would trump eBay's (EBAY, Trade) PayPal service.
Even Wall Street analysts took to dissecting the possibility Monday, resulting in more near-term negative headlines favoring eBay short sellers than anything concrete about a Google payment service. Not surprisingly, Google stayed mum (and likely amused) throughout all of this speculative reporting.
But it's not so much a payment system that presents an imminent threat to eBay. In my opinion, it's a Google listing business, and/or classified business that poses a real danger to eBay.
In fact, I'd go as far as to say that if Google really wanted to get at the heart of eBay's business, it would simply turn on a classifieds or listings business.
After all, it wouldn't be a big leap for Google to let users list an item for sale much as they post an advertisement. (That's one reason why this column posited the Google vs. eBay battle back in 2003: )
By a listings or classifieds service, I mean listings by individuals of their one-off items, or listings of items from small or medium sized merchants. I don't believe it matters if Google chooses not to get into auctions. EBay would still feel the pain from a Google listings business in a fixed-price format. That's because 30% of eBay's gross merchandise sales are done in fixed-price formats.
Here are a few reasons why I think a Google classifieds business poses a greater imminent threat to eBay than a payment business: A listings business is easier to implement; it's more in line with Google's core business, and helps fill up Google's local service listings. Listings on a local level have a tailwind to boot.
Let's start the easy implementation. Google already has an automated system that lets users post their advertisements on Google's network. I'd imagine integrating and getting traction for a payment service is more difficult than extending an automated, self-service feature to individuals or merchants who want to sell one-off items, or highlight certain items for sale.
For instance, I conducted a search for "Parlee bikes San Francisco" on Google. If there was a listing for one of the high-end bikes at a steep discount, I'd be inclined to click on that listing to buy the bike, rather than click on the ad and have to peruse through the entire shop to find it.
A classified/listings business would also be a smart and easy way to fill up Google's Local search-results pages with advertisements from local merchants, and listings of goods from residents. For now, Google's Local page says, "Find local businesses and services on the Web." It would be easy to add a line saying: "place your items for sale here."
I'm certain that if Google had a local listings business my friends would consider listing their antiques, cars or sundry items they may have laying on Google's service, especially if Google didn't charge for listings, but only for a completed transaction.
By adding this option for individuals and merchants, Google could also expand the number of keyword terms that it can sell.
Today, if I search for "Parlee bike San Francisco," I only get algorithmic results on Google's main search page, but no sponsored links. I get no listings whatsoever on Google's Local page. (Note: this listing is different from above because "bike" is not plural.)
But if Google had a listings service, a merchant could highlight that one product, or an individual could sell that one product, and it could be found with that keyword string. In other words, Google expands its inventory. And, that's exactly what Google needs to do as the classified business quickly shifts online.
About $1.7 billion in classified advertising went online in 2004, according to the NAA, the Newspaper Association of America. But about $16.6 billion in classified advertisements went into traditional newspapers last year.
Finally, an online payment system isn't exactly an easy sell to consumers. Consumers "like cash transactions," said Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist. There have been "no requests" from Craigslist users for an electronic payment system.
Clearly, an online payment business isn't needed or essential in the local marketplace, if Craigslist is a guide. And an online payment system hasn't gotten much traction beyond eBay's platform. Back in 2004, about 33% of PayPal transaction payment volume was done off eBay. As of the first quarter, it had dropped down to 29%. The company said that change was in part due to an increase in its auction business overseas during that period.
Think of it this way: Are you really in need of an alternative payment system when you're on Amazon.com, which has its own Amazon.com (AMZN, Trade) Visa card? I certainly don't feel drawn to using eBay's PayPal when I download songs from Apple's (AAPL, Trade) iTunes or if I buy on Overstock.com (OSTK, Trade). My credit cards will do. Even when I buy on eBay, I don't think of using PayPal as my first payment mechanism unless the merchant demands it.
I am not saying that an online payment service won't one day be large, and that eBay isn't successful rolling this out off its platform. At eBay's analyst day recently, the company said the PayPal market opportunity is $301 billion, on a global basis, according to a Smith Barney note. The PayPal fees also represent about 25% of eBay's sales. And, eBay generated nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in revenue from this business from $6.2 billion in gross merchandise value traded using the PayPal feature back in the first quarter.
Clearly, if Google were to get into this business, it's not good news for eBay, especially if Google waives the fees sellers pay to facilitate transactions using a Google "Wallet" or whatever name they come up with.
But if I were to bet, I'd put odds on Google gearing up for a classified/listings business first. Only once that is set up would it eventually launch a payment system.
When eBay bought PayPal back in 2001, Wall Street saw it as a sign that the online marketplace operator was essentially saying that its auction business was slowing down. If Google were to launch a payment service business, it would suggest to me that Google, in like vein, would be admitting that its advertising business is slowing down.

Naast alle redenen die hierboven zijn genoemd zou dit natuurlijk ook een interessant platform voor Google zijn als "services"(diensten) alternatief naast de Product Search Engine Froogle.

Wellicht ziet Google partijen zoals eBay/Craigslist/Marktplaats als Product & Services search engines - een punt waar ik enigzins wel in kan komen al is een platform als eBay meer dan alleen dat; ook de transacties vinden daadwerkelijk op de site plaats. Dit in tegenstelling tot de "classifieds" sites zoals Marktplaats. Nu dan ook met shopping.com in de arm kan het een leuke strijd worden tussen eBay (Inc.) en Google.